Even before the contents of a draft report by U.S intelligence agencies on conditions in Afghanistan was leaked last week, Americans and much of the rest of world knew things weren't going well in the Central Asian nation. There was the rising troop casualty toll. There was news of increasingly bold insurgent attacks against NATO forces, mostly American and British. There were the constant reports of corruption in the government of President Hamid Karzai. And last week, the British commander there, Brig. Mark Carleton-Smith, said, "We're not going to win this war."

The intelligence study is a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate by 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. It still is classified and won't be finished until after the Nov. 4 presidential election. Still, it paints a vivid picture of what it calls Afghanistan's "downward spiral."

The United States and its 25 NATO allies have come to a defining moment in the region. As problems mount in Afghanistan, they are doing the same in neighboring Pakistan. In fact, the war in Afghanistan rapidly is becoming, from a NATO perspective, the same war in Pakistan, as al-QaIda, Taliban and other insurgents cross back and forth across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to launch attacks on NATO forces. U.S. Special Forces have launched drone attacks against insurgents from Afghanistan into Pakistan. On Sept. 3, U.S. forces launched a ground raid into Pakistan. That raid was widely condemned in Pakistan, but it was justified by the United States because Washington says the Pakistani government is not doing enough to prevent insurgents from using its semiautonomous regions to stage attacks on NATO forces.

All this leaves the United States and its allies with some crucial decisions, which may or may not wait for the next president. But U.S. military leaders, including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, concede that a purely military solution is not possible there. That means that whoever wins the White House, Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, will have to broaden his "more troops" strategy that President George W. Bush already is committed to on a smaller scale.

To effectively fight insurgents, NATO forces will have to move from the idea of a strong central government and army to supporting — either directly or indirectly — tribal leaders in far-flung tribes in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite the fact that American economic assistance to Afghanistan has reached $6 billion per year, more must be done to strengthen Afghanistan's economy. By some estimates the heroin trade now accounts for 50 percent of Afghanistan's economy. Last week, NATO defense ministers agreed to allow alliance troops in Afghanistan to go after narcotics traffickers who are said to be providing the Taliban with $100 million a year in funding.

Stopping the "downward spiral" in Afghanistan and improving conditions there and in Pakistan are Herculean but not impossible tasks. The next president will have to decide how much of a commitment he will ask this country and its allies to make.

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