Monday, December 01, 2008 | 6:51 p.m.

Lawrence Kudlow

Home > Opinion Columns > Lawrence Kudlow
Please contact your local newspaper editor if you want to read Lawrence Kudlow's column in your hometown paper.
Lawrence Kudlow

Recently

  • Obama's Pro-Growth Economic Team?
    When President-elect Obama had a chance to squash the tax-hike threat once and for all at his news conference Monday, he took a pass and let the question linger for another day. But his new economic Cabinet appointments strongly suggest there will …
  • Tarp the TARP
    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has called for a pause in the financing request for the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), halting it at $350 billion. (The original request was for $700 billion.) I think that's an excellent idea. But in a …
  • Bush Shows Obama the Way
    President George W. Bush came out fighting for free markets with a strong and stirring defense of American capitalism on the eve of the G-20 World Economic Conference. Stocks soared 550 points Thursday, as Bush's luncheon speech was played live on …
  • Is Obama Swiping the Tax Cut Issue?
    Wouldn't it be the height of irony if Barack Obama wins this election as the Ronald Reagan tax-cutter? His tax plans are severely flawed, and his campaign narrative to support them is all wrong. And yet a recent Rasmussen poll shows that 31 percent …

A Paulson-Cantor Plan Is a Win-Win

Podcast available through:

If you like Lawrence Kudlow, you might enjoy

The single-biggest mistake in the Paulson bank-rescue-plan marketing effort has been the failure to explain clearly how taxpayers are going to recoup $700 billion used to buy toxic assets at auction in order to unfreeze the banking system. In other words, folks don't understand how taxpayers will be paid back, and may actually make profits, which will enable the new government debt to be erased after the Treasury bank rescue is completed.

Here's the key point: Any loan package bought by the Treasury will be 100 percent taxpayer owned. Period.

Let's walk through this hypothetical for a moment. Through a market-driven auction, the Treasury will purchase some dollar amount — say $100 billion — of loans that banks will sell. The Treasury will then buy those loans at the prices that fill the auction, starting with the lowest prices and working up.

Now, the Treasury will hold those bonds either to maturity or for a sale in the open market if rising prices in the market make that sale attractive. In other words, suppose the Treasury buys a bond package at 20 cents on the dollar. They hold it for a while, and if market conditions improve, they sell it for 50 cents on the dollar to some buyer (e.g., an investment fund, a private-equity fund, a hedgie). The Treasury will make the sale at the higher price in order to gain a profit for taxpayers.

In the meantime, as the Treasury holds the loans, the government will get monthly cash flows coming in on the mortgages, or on any other loans that it owns. So it is win-win for taxpayers. First, taxpayers get the cash flow generated by the assets (something like a 10 percent interest rate.) Second, if the loan is sold for profit, the taxpayers will own that profit. And the new law must of course stipulate that all the cash flows and/or profits go for debt-reduction to protect taxpayers.

I don't think a lot of folks understand this win-win scenario. Let me repeat: The taxpayers own the bonds the Treasury buys; the taxpayers own the cash flows generated by the bonds; the taxpayers own the profits when the bonds are sold; and the taxpayers benefit when the profits and cash flows are used to pay down government debt.

Actually, for taxpayers, it's a win-win-win-win.

Think about this.
The troubled assets purchased by the Treasury right now are likely to be very under-priced because of the chaotic and frozen market conditions. But over time, through monthly cash-flow payments or through loan sales, taxpayers will get all their money back and in great likelihood make a handsome profit.

I have been in conversation with leading House Republicans, and they understand these key points. Unfortunately, this understanding did not materialize in their original meeting with Paulson a few days ago. But now the actual reality is sinking in.

Another point: Republican leader Eric Cantor has an excellent idea for a federal bond insurance guarantee for straight mortgage-backed paper, financed by private-sector insurance premiums. That will improve investor confidence in mortgage bonds and will make those bonds highly marketable. Importantly, senior Treasury officials have told me that Paulson will accept the insurance idea as an option in the final bill, alongside the ability of the Treasury to purchase distressed assets.

Sources also tell me that other conditions will be necessary to bring the House GOP along. First, the ACORN slush fund must be removed. Second, the so-called union proxy to run a slate of corporate directors is a big problem. Third, all profits from the Treasury rescue mission must be used to reduce the national debt — 100 percent. Fourth, Republican members are opposed to bankruptcy judges setting mortgage terms and interest rates (Sen. Obama also is opposed). Fifth, the so-called government equity ownership of banks is distasteful because it effectively creates a corporate tax increase on banks at a time when they are struggling. And last, the treasury secretary's request for $700 billion is regarded as way too high.

Essentially, House Republican leaders want a slimmer, cleaner Paulson plan supplemented by Cantor's mortgage-bond insurance program. I think it's a good package that would be great news for stock and bond markets that are now ailing badly. It would set the stage for a gradual return to normalcy on the part of bank lenders, including loans to small businesses, consumers and homeowners. It would be a pro-growth package at a time when the economy desperately needs a prosperity tonic.

To find out more about Lawrence Kudlow and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com.

COPYRIGHT 2008 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC.




AddThis Social Bookmark Button RSS Get RSS Feed for Lawrence Kudlow Email updates Email me Lawrence Kudlow updates Comments Comments
Originally Published on Monday September 29, 2008


Lawrence Kudlow's column is released once a week.
Editors Picks - Opinion Columns
Gay Adoption: The Real Agenda
Steve Chapman
Giving Thanks
Susan Estrich
The Party of Lincoln Redux
Rhonda Chriss Lokeman
See All
More Lawrence Kudlow
Nov. `08
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
26 27 28 29 30 31 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 1 2 3 4 5 6
View By Month
About the author Print friendly format Write the author Email This Article to a friend
All newspaper editors want to know what their readers like. If you would like to read this feature in your local newspaper, please do not hesitate to share your enthusiasm with your local newspaper editor.


 

Shop Creators Syndicate

 
Monday, December 01, 2008 | 6:51 p.m.
About Creators | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Editor's login | FAQ | En Español
Copyright © 2006 Creators.com. All Rights Reserved.
Web Development by JJCO